冠状肺炎传播,隔离,预测和疫苗发展

Spread, Quarantine, Projections, and Vaccine Developments

Welcome to another MedCram lecture. We’re going to talk about an update for coronavirus as of Jan27, 2020. We have in China 4,428 infected and 106 have died. Now one of those that died recently was Beijing’s first reported death. 

欢迎参加另一个MedCram讲座。我们将讨论截至2020年1月27日的冠状病毒更新。在..,我们有4428例感染病毒,其中106例死亡。现在,最近去世的人之一是..首例死亡。

And this is a 50-year-old gentleman who visited Wuhan on January 8th and developed fever seven days later on the 15th. (He) went to the hospital on the 21st and then died on the 27th. So this kind of gives you at least an example of one in terms of the natural history of what we’re talking about.

这是一位50岁的绅士,他于1月8日访问了..,并在15日的7天后发烧。 (他)于21日去医院,然后于27日死亡。因此,就我们所谈论的自然历史而言,这种方式至少为您提供了一个例子。

Now over the past day or so, there have been some epidemiologists in China that have looked at this, and they’re trying to parse exactly how well the containment or the quarantining of this area is. And they’ve come up with some pretty sober results. They say that optimistically if we were to able to get a ninety percent containment of the area, they predict based on their models that the peak infection would hit about fifty-nine thousand people, and that would mean that would be about 1500 deaths.

在过去的大约一天的时间里,..有些流行病学家对此进行了研究,他们正试图准确地分析该地区的隔离或隔离状况。他们提出了一些非常清醒的结果。他们说,如果我们能够获得该地区90%的收容率,他们乐观地预测,根据他们的模型,高峰期感染将袭击约5.9万人,这将意味着约1500人死亡。

Now if the containment was worse than that, there’s been some news about that recently, because the mayor of Wuhan said that about 5 million people went out of the city after there was the virus, and so if you look at a worst-case scenario of only fifty percent containment of the area based on the models, that they’ve come up with is 5 million people being infected, and a death rate of about 100,000 people. And in terms of the publication this, I’m going to go ahead and put the links in the description below, so you’ll have the links to all of this stuff that I’m going to talk about today.

现在,如果遏制状况比这更糟,最近有一些新闻,因为..市长说,大约有500万人出城了,所以如果您考虑最坏的情况根据模型得出的结果,该地区仅有50%的围堵措施被感染了..万人,死亡人数约为..。就本出版物而言,我将继续在下面的描述中放置链接,因此您将获得我今天要谈论的所有这些东西的链接。

So things have kind of heated up. We have Sri Lanka having its first case. This is a Chinese tourist that went to Sri Lanka, and this patient being hospitalized in the capital of Colombo. We have the United States ordering a level-3 alert saying no non-essential travel to China.

所以事情有点升温了。我们有斯里兰卡第一个案例。这位游客去了斯里兰卡,该患者在首都科伦坡住院。我们要求美国下达3级警报,说没有对..的不必要旅行。

We have a quarantine in China of about 50 million people, and one of the areas that’s really going to be of high interest is this whole idea of whether the virus can be contracted when the patient, or the index case, is asymptomatic. This claim was first made by China’s  Health Minister, but there is growing concern because the United States and their Health Department personnel have been unable to look at the data in China because not being allowed to look at that data to see exactly how is it possible that somebody who does not have symptoms is able to transmit the virus.

我们在..的隔离区大约有5000万人,而真正引起人们高度关注的领域之一是,当患者或首例患者无症状时,是否可以感染病毒的整个想法。这项说法最初是由..卫生部长提出的,但由于美国及其卫生部门人员无法查看..的数据,因为不允许他们查看该数据以确切地了解可能的情况,因此人们越来越担心没有症状的人能够传播病毒。

So, we’re not exactly able to back up that claim as of this moment. Better news in the US. There have been no new confirmed cases overnight. So we’ve got four or five cases. We got two in California one in Los Angeles County. The other one in Orange County.

因此,目前我们还无法完全备份该声明。在美国的好消息。一夜之间没有新的确诊病例。因此,我们有四个或五个案例。我们在加利福尼亚州的洛杉矶县有两个。另一个在橙县。

We have the one in Washington state, and that’s an interesting story in and of itself. So in Washington state, the index case themselves is a gentleman who actually went to the market in Wuhan, and currently health investigators are looking at about sixty-four different people that he might have had contact with, and they’re tracking them down and seeing whether or not they have the virus.

我们在华盛顿州拥有一个,这本身就是一个有趣的故事。因此,在华盛顿州,首例病人是一位绅士,实际上是在武汉去市场的。目前,健康调查人员正在研究他可能曾与之接触过的大约64个不同的人,他们正在追踪他们,并看看他们是否感染了病毒。

So far the index case himself is doing fine. Getting back to California, as we mentioned, there are cases in Orange County and also in Los Angeles County. What was just recently announced is that Ontario International Airport is going to be the repatriation center for about 240 Americans who are going to be repatriated back to the United States out of China.

到目前为止,索引案例本身还不错。正如我们提到的,回到加利福尼亚,在奥兰治县和洛杉矶县都有案例。最近刚刚宣布的是,安大略国际机场将成为大约240名美国人的遣返中心,这些美国人将被从中国遣返美国。

And that is a chartered flight, and it is first going to go to Anchorage Alaska for refueling, and it’s at that point that they’re going to have their first health check and then it will be going on to Ontario International Airport in Southern California where they will be soon as they get off the plane and they’re going to be screened to make sure that they’re not sick and to make sure that they don’t have the virus.

那是包机,首先要去阿拉斯加的安克雷奇加油,那时候他们要进行第一次健康检查,然后再去南加州的安大略国际机场。他们将在下飞机后尽快到达那里,并将对其进行筛查,以确保他们没有生病并且确保没有病毒。

And there are more details on that article. So that’s something that’s been in the news just recently in the last few hours. Interesting news out of Canada. There is a case in Toronto, which I know very well since I’m originally from Toronto, The patient came from Wuhan and is currently in a hospital there in Toronto called Sunnybrook Health Care Sciences.

关于该文章还有更多详细信息。这就是最近几个小时以来的新闻。来自加拿大的有趣新闻。多伦多有一例,因为我最初是从多伦多来的,所以我非常清楚。该患者来自武汉,目前在多伦多的一家名为Sunnybrook Health Care Sciences的医院中。

Interestingly, the husband is in hospital, but the patient’s wife has also tested positive for the coronavirus. However, she’s at home, and she’s doing quite fine without any symptoms. And I think this is an interesting illustration of how variable the presentation can be of this virus in different individuals. 

有趣的是,丈夫在医院,但患者的妻子也检测出冠状病毒阳性。但是,她在家里,而且身体还不错,没有任何症状。我认为这是一个有趣的例证,说明了该病毒在不同个体中呈现的差异。

And we were assuming here that they both picked it up at the market there in Wuhan, China, and hopefully that the husband did not give it to the wife, and that would be the first case of a human to human transfer outside of China. So far, we have not had any evidence at least in the United States or in fact anywhere else in the world other than China where there has been a human to Human transmission of this virus. So that’s good news.

我们在这里假设他们俩都是在..的市场上感染的,希望丈夫不把它交给妻子,那将是在..以外的人与人之间的转移的第一例。到目前为止,至少在美国或实际上除中国以外的世界其他任何地方,我们都没有任何证据。这是个好消息。 

Okay. Let’s talk about vaccines here. Johnson & Johnson is getting into the fray and trying to come up with a vaccine for this virus. They’re saying that it’s going to take anywhere between 8 to 12 months before human testing can take place. The NIH, on the other hand, is saying that they may have something ready in about three months. It’ll be interesting to see where we will be at that time. A lot of epidemiologists are saying that the peak of this epidemic may be reached in about three-month time.

好的。让我们在这里谈论疫苗。强生公司(Johnson&Johnson)陷入困境,并试图为这种病毒研制出疫苗。他们说要花8到12个月的时间才能进行人工测试。美国国立卫生研究院则表示,他们可能会在大约三个月内准备就绪。看到我们那时的位置会很有趣。许多流行病学家说,这种流行病的高峰可能在大约三个月的时间内达到。

A side note here on Johnson and Johnson. They have a very powerful HIV medication, which interestingly as you may know HIV is an RNA virus as well, and they’re wanting to see whether or not the HIV medication is going to be effective against the coronavirus. And that medication is Prezcobix, so that’ll be interesting to see how that works. 

关于约翰逊和约翰逊的旁注。他们有非常强大的HIV药物,有趣的是,您可能也知道HIV也是RNA病毒,而且他们想知道HIV药物是否对冠状病毒有效。而且那药是Prezcobix,所以看看它如何起作用会很有趣。

Now a common question that gets asked is exactly how does this virus kill somebody? Why is it that people succumb to the virus and what mechanism? And in most of the cases, it’s respiratory failure and something called ARDS.

现在被问到的一个常见问题是该病毒究竟是如何杀死某人的?人们为什么会死于该病毒,其机制是什么?在大多数情况下,这是呼吸衰竭或称为ARDS(Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome 急性呼吸窘迫综合征)的东西。

So in the next video, I’m going to talk about ARDS, and exactly how is it that we treat it? What do we do for it? And why is it that we need to have updated ICUs to deal with ARDS, and what’s been the recent evidence in the last couple of years for treating ARDS, and how can we improve survival for some of these viruses? That’s to be in the next video. Thanks for joining us and stay tuned for further updates!

因此,在下一个视频中,我将讨论ARDS,以及我们如何对待它?我们为此做什么?为什么我们需要更新ICU以应对ARDS?最近几年来治疗ARDS的最新证据是什么?我们如何改善其中一些病毒的存活率?那将在下一个视频中。感谢您加入我们,敬请期待进一步的更新!

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