Spread, Quarantine, Projections, and Vaccine Developments

Welcome to another MedCram lecture. We’re going to talk about an update for coronavirus as of Jan27, 2020. We have in China 4,428 infected and 106 have died. Now one of those that died recently was Beijing’s first reported death. 


And this is a 50-year-old gentleman who visited Wuhan on January 8th and developed fever seven days later on the 15th. (He) went to the hospital on the 21st and then died on the 27th. So this kind of gives you at least an example of one in terms of the natural history of what we’re talking about.

这是一位50岁的绅士,他于1月8日访问了..,并在15日的7天后发烧。 (他)于21日去医院,然后于27日死亡。因此,就我们所谈论的自然历史而言,这种方式至少为您提供了一个例子。

Now over the past day or so, there have been some epidemiologists in China that have looked at this, and they’re trying to parse exactly how well the containment or the quarantining of this area is. And they’ve come up with some pretty sober results. They say that optimistically if we were to able to get a ninety percent containment of the area, they predict based on their models that the peak infection would hit about fifty-nine thousand people, and that would mean that would be about 1500 deaths.


Now if the containment was worse than that, there’s been some news about that recently, because the mayor of Wuhan said that about 5 million people went out of the city after there was the virus, and so if you look at a worst-case scenario of only fifty percent containment of the area based on the models, that they’ve come up with is 5 million people being infected, and a death rate of about 100,000 people. And in terms of the publication this, I’m going to go ahead and put the links in the description below, so you’ll have the links to all of this stuff that I’m going to talk about today.


So things have kind of heated up. We have Sri Lanka having its first case. This is a Chinese tourist that went to Sri Lanka, and this patient being hospitalized in the capital of Colombo. We have the United States ordering a level-3 alert saying no non-essential travel to China.


We have a quarantine in China of about 50 million people, and one of the areas that’s really going to be of high interest is this whole idea of whether the virus can be contracted when the patient, or the index case, is asymptomatic. This claim was first made by China’s  Health Minister, but there is growing concern because the United States and their Health Department personnel have been unable to look at the data in China because not being allowed to look at that data to see exactly how is it possible that somebody who does not have symptoms is able to transmit the virus.


So, we’re not exactly able to back up that claim as of this moment. Better news in the US. There have been no new confirmed cases overnight. So we’ve got four or five cases. We got two in California one in Los Angeles County. The other one in Orange County.


We have the one in Washington state, and that’s an interesting story in and of itself. So in Washington state, the index case themselves is a gentleman who actually went to the market in Wuhan, and currently health investigators are looking at about sixty-four different people that he might have had contact with, and they’re tracking them down and seeing whether or not they have the virus.


So far the index case himself is doing fine. Getting back to California, as we mentioned, there are cases in Orange County and also in Los Angeles County. What was just recently announced is that Ontario International Airport is going to be the repatriation center for about 240 Americans who are going to be repatriated back to the United States out of China.


And that is a chartered flight, and it is first going to go to Anchorage Alaska for refueling, and it’s at that point that they’re going to have their first health check and then it will be going on to Ontario International Airport in Southern California where they will be soon as they get off the plane and they’re going to be screened to make sure that they’re not sick and to make sure that they don’t have the virus.


And there are more details on that article. So that’s something that’s been in the news just recently in the last few hours. Interesting news out of Canada. There is a case in Toronto, which I know very well since I’m originally from Toronto, The patient came from Wuhan and is currently in a hospital there in Toronto called Sunnybrook Health Care Sciences.

关于该文章还有更多详细信息。这就是最近几个小时以来的新闻。来自加拿大的有趣新闻。多伦多有一例,因为我最初是从多伦多来的,所以我非常清楚。该患者来自武汉,目前在多伦多的一家名为Sunnybrook Health Care Sciences的医院中。

Interestingly, the husband is in hospital, but the patient’s wife has also tested positive for the coronavirus. However, she’s at home, and she’s doing quite fine without any symptoms. And I think this is an interesting illustration of how variable the presentation can be of this virus in different individuals. 


And we were assuming here that they both picked it up at the market there in Wuhan, China, and hopefully that the husband did not give it to the wife, and that would be the first case of a human to human transfer outside of China. So far, we have not had any evidence at least in the United States or in fact anywhere else in the world other than China where there has been a human to Human transmission of this virus. So that’s good news.


Okay. Let’s talk about vaccines here. Johnson & Johnson is getting into the fray and trying to come up with a vaccine for this virus. They’re saying that it’s going to take anywhere between 8 to 12 months before human testing can take place. The NIH, on the other hand, is saying that they may have something ready in about three months. It’ll be interesting to see where we will be at that time. A lot of epidemiologists are saying that the peak of this epidemic may be reached in about three-month time.


A side note here on Johnson and Johnson. They have a very powerful HIV medication, which interestingly as you may know HIV is an RNA virus as well, and they’re wanting to see whether or not the HIV medication is going to be effective against the coronavirus. And that medication is Prezcobix, so that’ll be interesting to see how that works. 


Now a common question that gets asked is exactly how does this virus kill somebody? Why is it that people succumb to the virus and what mechanism? And in most of the cases, it’s respiratory failure and something called ARDS.

现在被问到的一个常见问题是该病毒究竟是如何杀死某人的?人们为什么会死于该病毒,其机制是什么?在大多数情况下,这是呼吸衰竭或称为ARDS(Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome 急性呼吸窘迫综合征)的东西。

So in the next video, I’m going to talk about ARDS, and exactly how is it that we treat it? What do we do for it? And why is it that we need to have updated ICUs to deal with ARDS, and what’s been the recent evidence in the last couple of years for treating ARDS, and how can we improve survival for some of these viruses? That’s to be in the next video. Thanks for joining us and stay tuned for further updates!



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