Travel Ban, First Death Outside of China, Quarantine, & Opportunistic Infection
Welcome to another MedCram coronavirus update! We can see that the current deaths are 305, and for the first time, we actually have a death outside of China. We will get to that here in a little bit. The number of affected has grown to over 14,500 if you believe the numbers coming out of China. So, if we can take that consistently, you’ll see that the mortality rate is still around 2%; in the other couple of updates that we’ve done before, it was 2.2%.
Interestingly, if you look just at the cases in China, and we look at where we were on the 27th, the 28th, the 29th, and 30th, and 31st of January, sometimes I can tell you about what direction things are going, and we can see here 28%, 26%, 15%. I was actually a bit excited about the fact that it looked like it might have been tapering off, but No. From the 30th to the 31st, we were right back up to 28%, and this thing keeps climbing.
Some more news here at home. We now have the eighth confirmed case. This one is in Boston, and this was a traveler from Wuhan. He’s gotten attention there. He seems to be doing okay. Because of what’s going on, and, since we last talked, you may have known that this plane that landed at March Air Reserve Base, instead of getting 72 hours, they are all getting 14 days. That seems to be what’s going to be going on for just about anybody coming from the Wuhan area, at least in the United States.
Both the US, Japan and Australia are now becoming more restrictive in terms of basically flights almost anywhere in China being restricted, and even United States citizens now coming from China, especially the Wuhan area, are getting a mandatory 14-day quarantine to make sure that they are not going to be carrying this coronavirus into the United States. And any of those flights that come from China are being directed strictly to only three airports in the United States so they can control that. That’s Kennedy in New York, O’hare in Illinois, and San Francisco in California.
Now as we mentioned before the first death outside of China was just announced a number of hours ago. This was actually a surprisingly young person, a 44-year-old, who traveled from China on the 21st of January with a 38-year-old female. All indications are that she is doing okay, but she’s being monitored.
In reading the news about this, it looks as though the patient who had the disease was getting better, and then all of a sudden quickly turned for the worse. Don’t know exactly what situation that was. Perhaps he was doing better on the ventilator and turned very bad very quickly. It’s unclear. But one of the things that we haven’t talked about, which is the natural history of the flu, is what the flu does.
We kind of talked about in our video, and I highly recommend you go back and look at that video that will put a link up for here of how does the coronavirus kill? One of the things that we talked about in there is ARDS. That was the major thing, and what we can do to treat ARDS. But there is another aspect to the flu in general, or indeed any virus that attacks the lungs, and that is this: because the virus infects the cells right there in the respiratory tract, your immune system wants to get rid of those cells because they’re infected. And so what happens is there is a normal and natural immunity that is put in your respiratory cells, and that immunity, or that ability to fend off infections, is greatly compromised.
So there is a denuding of the respiratory epithelium. So what happens is you get something called. OIs. OIs stand for opportunistic infections. And when they see an opportunity, they will move in. So it’s not a virus that’s moving in necessarily, the virus opens you up to infection.
But the biggest opportunistic infection that we see most classically in viral infections is staph aureus. And staph aureus is not a virus; staph aureus is a bacteria typically lives on skin, will live in the mouth occasionally, but it’s an opportunistic infection AU, as you may know, is the periodic table of elements symbol for gold. And the reason why that is there in Latin is because the secretions of staph aureus are very golden. They are yellow.
Staph aureus of course in this country and other countries can be resistant to your typical oxacillin or methicillin, and that’s when you get something called MRSA. Now, of course, where did these staph aureus go? It’s when you’re in the hospital, when you’re being treated. And we’re not saying that this is what happened to this gentleman here in the Philippines. But this is a very classical thing to see with the flu is the patient will get the flu, they will feel better, and then all of a sudden this bacterial infection sometimes MRSA, which is methicillin-resistant staph aureus. So it’s the same bug; it just has a resistance pattern. It’ll move in, and it will rapidly decompensate the patient, and these patients die from staph aureus classically. But it can be other bacteria like streptococcus pneumonia, etc, etc.
So, where are we in the world of understanding this coronavirus? We’ve had it now for over a month. Where do we think it ranges in the known list of viruses? And there was an excellent pictorial representation of this, which I’ll recreate for you and show you, and that’s this graph.
Let’s talk about this graph. So here on the x-axis is the infectivity. Okay, so if one person is infected, how many people will that one person infect? And we have all the way down here at 0 all the way up to 15. Measles being a very infective virus all the way down to the flu, Spanish flu or bird flu, which maybe affect one or two people.
And then on the y-axis, we have the fatality rate in a logarithmic scale. So if the fatality rate .1%, like it is with the flu, pretty low, or is it, you know 1%, or is it 10% of people, like SARS. 10% of people who became infected with the SARS virus died. What about a hundred percent?
So we’re talking about like bird flu, Ebola, smallpox. These are deadly viruses. So where does coronavirus range? Well, it seems to be both more deadly than the regular flu, and probably more contagious than the regular flu. So it’s definitely going to be northeast here on the graph of the regular flu, but it doesn’t seem to be as deadly as, for instance, smallpox, or as infective as smallpox. So it seems to be ranging in this area.
As we get more time and more data, this box here of variability is going to contract down to a single point, and we’ll have a better idea about where we are. But this is the best estimate at this point of scientist to where we are.
Okay, so join us for the next update, and if you like what you’re seeing here, subscribe to the channel and pass these videos on, and finally visit us at MedCramChina.com. Thanks for joining us!