死亡率,EPA批准的清洁产品,毒株变异及致命性。

EPA Approved Cleaning Products, A More or Less Severe Virus Strain (Lecture 31)

Welcome to another MedCram covid-19 update. Total confirmed cases 96,000; total deaths 3300; total recovered 53,000.  Going over to the worldodometer site, total cases were leveling off. Now they are starting to pick up. We are definitely in the epidemic phase here outside of China.

欢迎来到MedCram covid-19的另一个更新。确诊病例总数96,000;总死亡3300; 康复53,000。转到worldodometer 站点,总病例数之前趋于平稳。现在他们开始回升了。我们肯定在中国以外的地方处于流行阶段。

I like to go to the worldometer for the latest updates, which is on the homepage. You can see here for March 5th, and of course, the day is not done, just beginning. 2 new cases here in the United States; 4 new cases in Thailand; 145 new cases in South Korea. They are testing aggressively in South Korea as you can see.

我喜欢去Worldometer以获得最新更新,该更新位于主页上。您可以在这里看到3月5日,当然,一天还没有结束,只是开始。美国有2个新案件;泰国有4例新病例;韩国有145例新病例。如您所见,韩国测试很积极。

If you look at the completed day for yesterday, you will see two new deaths in the United States and 34 new cases here as well. The west coast is the place where the epidemic is occurring most. We have 12 new cases in Washington state and 12 new cases in California.

如果您查看昨天的数据,您将看到在美国看到两例新死亡,在这里也发现34例新病例。西海岸是流行病最普遍的地方。华盛顿州有12个新病例,加利福尼亚州有12个新病例。

587 new cases in just one day in Italy, with 28 new deaths. If we look at the worldwide close cases, we can see that the death rate is still falling as the virus progresses. The death rate falling under 6%; we know that the WHO yesterday declared that the worldwide estimated case fatality rate is somewhere at the three percent range. They had previously set around 2%.

在意大利,一天之内就有587例新病例,有28例新死亡。如果我们看一下全球范围内的病例,我们可以看到随着病毒的发展,死亡率仍然在下降。死亡率低于6%;我们知道,世界卫生组织昨天宣布,全世界估计的病死率约为3%。他们先前设定在2%左右。

Looking at active cases that are going on right now. There are about 38,000, of those 32,000 are in mild condition; probably they don’t even need to be in the hospital. 17% are in serious or critical condition; these are people in the hospital or even in the Intensive Care Unit.

查看当前正在发生的活跃案例。大约38,000人,其中32,000人处于轻度状态;也许他们甚至都不需要住院。 17%处于严重或严重状况;这些人在医院甚至在重症监护室。

This is a list that the EPA has put together of registered antimicrobial products for use against coronavirus, SARS-COV-2, the cause of covid-19. This is what we’ve been waiting for. It was put out on March 3rd. I will put the link to this in the description below.

这是EPA汇总的已注册的抗菌产品清单,用于对抗冠状病毒SARS-COV-2(covid-19的病因)。这就是我们一直在等待的东西。它于3月3日发布。我将在下面的描述中添加对此的链接。

You can see that bleach and peroxide and certain chemicals here. RTU, by the way, is ready to use. DELUTAB is something that you can dilute. But you can see here, there are a number of products that are certified to clean and disinfect surfaces that are colonized by the SARS-COV-2 virus.

您可以在此处看到漂白剂,过氧化物和某些化学物质。顺便说一下,R​​TU是直接可用的意思。DELUTABLE是说可稀释的。但是您可以在这里看到,许多产品都经过认证可以清洁和消毒SARS-COV-2病毒所在的表面。

I want to talk about this interesting research article. The research was done by experts at Peking University in Beijing, Shanghai University, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The gist of the article is we have the SARS-COV-2 virus, and what they’re saying is that there are two types. There is an ancestral S-Type, which was starting before or at the very beginning of the outbreak, and there’s been a mutation that’s branched off. The original is known as the S form, and the mutated form is known as the L form.

我想谈谈这篇有趣的研究文章。该研究由北京大学,北京大学,中国科学院的专家完成。本文的要旨是我们感染了SARS-COV-2病毒,他们说的是两种类型的病毒。有一个祖先的S型,它是在疫情爆发之前或开始时开始的,并且已经衍生出一个突变。原始形式称为S形式,而变异形式称为L形式。

How they differ is that at a single point where there’s been a mutation of one nucleotide that’s known as an SNP, a single nucleotide polymorphism. For instance, in the genome, instead of having AGT, which would be in the S-Type, the mutated L version, the one that’s branched off, is going to be AGC. At that point, there’s been a change of a nucleotide, and that’s caused a difference.

它们之间的区别在于,在一个点上,一个核苷酸发生了变异,即SNP,即单核苷酸多态性。例如,在基因组中,除了具有S型的AGT外,突变的L版本(分支的一个)将是AGC。那时,核苷酸发生了变化,这引起了病毒的不同。

This L and the S form, the S being less severe, but the more original form was seen only 30% of the time in Wuhan, the more severe one, and the people up in the hospital and they were quarantined, that’s been reduced, and it’s been decreasing whereas the 30% one is the one that seems to be spreading.

这种L和S形式,S的严重程度较轻,但在武汉只有30%的时间出现了更原始的形式,这种形式越严重,医院里的人就被隔离了,这种情况已减少,并且一直在下降,而30%的那种似乎正在蔓延。

Let’s take a look at some of their data in that article. Here is the article itself. I will put a link in the description below. Here’s a Fulani tree where you can see that the red arrow is the S and the blue arrow the L.

让我们看看该文章中的一些数据。这是文章本身。我将在下面的说明中放置一个链接。这是一棵富拉尼树,您可以看到红色箭头是S,蓝色箭头是L。

There’s also further analysis. Again, the red dots being the S version, and the blue dots being the descendants or the more severe one. Here you can see the two L&S types, and you can see that there is a transition there, where the S-Type seems to be more similar to the other coronaviruses, with a T at this position in this gene changed to a C, and that became more virulent in the L Type, which is the blue one.

还有进一步的分析。同样,红点是S版本,蓝点是后代或更严重的后代。在这里,您可以看到两种L&S类型,并且在那里可以看到一种过渡,其中S-Type似乎与其他冠状病毒更相似,该基因在此位置的T变为C,并且在蓝色的L型中变得更加致命。

You can also see where this went. For instance, you can see here there’s a strain that went to France, Germany. There are some that have gone to South Korea, the United States, Singapore Japan. But some of the S-Type have also gone to the United States, to Australia, to Korea, Japan, etc. Etc.

您还可以查看结果。例如,您可以看到这里法国,德国都有毒株。有一些毒株到了韩国,美国,新加坡日本。但是,一些S型也已到达美国,澳大利亚,韩国,日本等。

In terms of the number of strains, looking at this first part of the graph. Outside of Wuhan, there was a lot more of the S-Type, whereas inside Wuhan there was a much, much higher concentration of the newer L-type, which was also more severe.

关于菌株数量,请看图表的第一部分。在武汉以外,S型的数量更多,而在武汉内部,新型L型的浓度要高得多,而且浓度也更高。

Look at the second part of the graph, before January 7 verses after January 7, the S-Type was making much more of a comeback. Unfortunately, you can’t really choose what form of the virus you get infected with. According to the authors of the study, you may actually get both. Apparently the virus has identified from a patient in Australia had multiple degenerated nucleotides. And the best explanation is that this patient was infected by at least two different strains of SARS-COV-2 viruses. You can see here that looking at the two nucleotides at these positions, they were different even though this was in the same person.

看图的第二部分,在1月7日之前,在1月7日之后,S型正在卷土重来。不幸的是,您无法真正选择要感染的病毒形式。根据研究的作者,实际上您可能会两者兼得。显然,该病毒已从澳大利亚的一名患者身上鉴定出具有多个简并核苷酸。最好的解释是,该患者感染了至少两种不同的SARS-COV-2病毒株。您可以在此处看到,即使在同一个人中,查看这些位置的两个核苷酸,它们也不相同。

Of course, the other possibilities that the patient may have had mutated virus in them at the same time, which is unlikely. The authors and their abstract saying that these findings strongly support an urgent need for further, immediate, comprehensive studies that combine genomic data, epidemiological data, and chart records of the clinical symptoms of patients with covid-19. Thanks for joining.

当然,患者可能同时感染了病毒的其他可能性也不太可能。作者及其摘要说,这些发现强烈支持迫切需要进一步,即时,全面的研究,这些研究需要结合基因组数据,流行病学数据和covid-19患者临床症状的图表记录。感谢您的加入。

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