错误信息，感染严重程度，游轮和病毒起源
Misinformation, Infection Severity, Cruise Ship, & Virus Origins (Lecture 20)
Welcome to another MedCram lecture! Total confirmed cases is 73,000 approximately; total deaths is 1,873; total recovered is 12,887. And that ratio of total recovered to total deaths has been increasing. If we go to the WorldOmeter website, we look at the total cases that have been diagnosed. Again here, we see that big jump on February 12th because of the expansion of the diagnostic criteria and leveling off once again as we saw.
欢迎再次参加MedCram讲座！已确认的病例总数约为73,000；死亡总数为1,873；回收的总数为12,887。而且，康复总数与死亡总数的比例一直在增加。如果我们访问WorldOmeter网站，我们将查看已诊断的病例总数。再次在这里，由于诊断标准的扩展，我们看到了2月12日的巨大飞跃，并且再次稳定下来。
Total deaths, however, continued to increase although there seems to be some leveling off. If we look again at more case statistics, we can get that broken down, and we’ve been looking at these carefully. The number of daily new cases seem to be leveling off worldwide. However, if we look at new cases outside of China, they seem to be accelerating. We’ll have more on that in a little bit.
然而，尽管似乎有所下降，总死亡人数仍继续增加。如果我们再次查看更多的案例统计数据，我们可以将其细分，并且我们一直在仔细研究这些数据。全球每天的新病例数量似乎正在趋于平稳。但是，如果我们看看中国以外的新病例，它们似乎正在加速发展。我们将在稍后对此进行更多介绍。
There’s an interesting article that was published on the website of NPR. It was a transcript of an interview that was done with Carl Bergstrom, who is a professor of Biology at the University of Washington, who talks about something that’s spreading even faster than the virus. That’s false information, and it’s an interesting discussion about misinformation, about how many are infected, how it’s spreading, and the source of how this virus came about. And it discusses the different motives for why there might be missing information about this. I think it’s an interesting read, and I will include a link in the description below.
NPR网站上刊登了一篇有趣的文章。这是华盛顿大学生物学教授卡尔·伯格斯特罗姆（Carl Bergstrom）进行的一次采访的谈话记录，他谈到传播速度甚至比病毒还要快的东西。这是错误的信息，它是关于错误信息，有关感染了多少病毒，其传播方式以及这种病毒的来源的有趣讨论。并且讨论了为什么可能缺少有关此信息的不同动机。我认为这是一个有趣的阅读，我将在下面的描述中包含一个链接。
So given that, let’s go ahead and take a look at this article, which is out of the University of Minnesota. The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy talks about a lot of things that have happened in the last 24 hours. One of the big things that’s come out is a report from basically the Chinese version of the CDC. And of course, many things in xx are controlled by the government.
因此，让我们继续看一下这篇明尼苏达大学的文章。传染病研究与政策中心则讨论了过去24小时内发生的许多事情。主要的问题之一是CDC的中文版报告。当然，xx中的许多事情都是由政府控制的。
But it’s interesting to look to see what they are reporting. This is a study that came out that looked at 72,000 patient records, of which 44,000 were lab-confirmed cases, and 16,000 were suspected cases, and over 10,000 were part of the newly expanded clinical criteria for the coronavirus, and there were almost 900 asymptomatic cases. So what they’re showing here is what proportion are mild, severe, and critical.
但是，看看他们在报告什么很有趣。这项研究的结果涉及72,000位患者记录，其中44,000位是实验室确诊病例，16,000位疑似病例，超过10,000条是新扩展的冠状病毒临床标准的一部分，几乎有900条无症状案件。因此，他们在这里显示的是轻度，严重和严重的比例。
And it kind of confirms what we had been seeing in the beginning, which was that about 80% of the cases that were diagnosed were mild, and the vast majority of these cases were in people aged 30 to 79. So what did they see? About 14% of these illnesses were severe, and about 5% of them were critical, and then here’s the interesting part because we always discussed if you could compare the number of deaths at a particular point in time with the number of confirmed cases at a particular point in time, and that was a concern for many, including myself, because patients can be diagnosed very early, but it takes quite a while for them to die obviously from the virus.
这也肯定了我们一开始所看到的情况，那就是大约80％的确诊病例是轻度的，这些病例中的绝大多数是30至79岁的人。那么他们看到了什么？这些疾病中约有14％是严重疾病，而其中约5％是严重疾病，这是有趣的部分，因为我们一直在讨论您是否可以比较特定时间点的死亡人数与确诊病例的死亡人数。在特定的时间点，这是包括我自己在内的许多人的担忧，因为可以很早地诊断出患者，但是要使他们明显死于该病毒还需要相当长的时间。
And so, how far back did you need to go to have a case fatality rate? Well, when they looked at these after it was said and done, they looked at the overall case fatality rate, and it turns out to be, in their analysis, about 2.3 percent. And just as we suspected what we see in a lot of viral pneumonia cases with influenza, there were 1,023 included in the study. Most of these were people who are age older than 60, and those who had underlying medical conditions.
因此，您需要多久才能达到病死率？好了，当他们说完这些之后再查看这些内容时，他们查看了总体病死率，在他们的分析中，结果是大约2.3％。正如我们怀疑我们在许多病毒性肺炎并发流感病例中所见一样，该研究中包括了1,0223。其中大多数是年龄超过60岁的人，以及患有基础疾病的人。
Now, there was a study that was published in JAMA that showed that a number of healthcare workers at the very beginning of this outbreak were infected. A lot of them know XXX. This confirmed that about 1,700 healthcare workers were infected in the outbreak, and 5 of them fatally, one of those, of course, was Dr. Li, who was at the early portion of the epidemic, and he warned a number of his colleagues about this and was reprimanded, of course, by the xx government.
现在，《美国医学会杂志》上发表了一项研究，该研究表明，在爆发初期，许多医护人员被感染。他们中的许多人都认识XXX。这证实了大约1,700名医护人员在疫情中被感染，其中有5人死亡，当然其中之一是流行病初期的李医生，他就此警告了许多同事。这当然是由xx政府谴责的。
The events that marked the severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, MERS-COV, were sometimes associated with super spreader events, and it didn’t seem like there was any evidence of that occurring in this particular outbreak.
标记为严重急性呼吸系统综合症或SARS的事件以及中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒MERS-COV有时与超级传播器事件有关，似乎没有证据表明这种特殊情况发生了暴发。
The other big news is that there seems to be, and they’re looking at, a decline in the number of cases that are diagnosed in China. Now, this maybe because of the quarantining, and if they release that quarantine, we may see that shoot up again. It’s also of course as you have more and more people infected, it’s more difficult for the virus to infect more people because it can’t infect someone that’s already infected. So the WHO is asking people to take this with a grain of salt, and see how things go.
另一个大新闻是，似乎有这种情况，而且他们正在考虑在中国诊断出的病例数量下降。现在，这可能是由于隔离所致，如果他们释放了隔离区，我们可能会再次看到这种隔离。当然，这也随着您感染了越来越多的人，该病毒很难感染更多的人，因为它无法感染已经感染的人。因此，世卫组织提醒人么谨慎对待这个问题，看看情况如何。
The other interesting story in all of this is what is going on on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which has been quarantined in the Yokohama Port since February 3rd. And as of yesterday, there were another 99 more people on this cruise ship that tested positive, raising the total to 454. And so the US State Department had evacuated more than 300 U.S. citizens and their family members who have been on the Diamond Princess. Interestingly, between when they got off the ship and when they got to the airport, U.S. officials had learned that about 14 passengers who have been tested turned positive for covid-19, which is the illness that is produced by the virus. These people were still put on the plane but put into a specialized part of the aircraft, and it says here isolated according to standard protocol. These people aren’t going to arrive at Travis Air Force Base or the joint base in San Antonio, Texas.
所有这一切中另一个有趣的故事是钻石公主号游轮上发生的事情，该船自2月3日起在横滨港被隔离。截止到昨天，这艘游轮上又有99人进行了阳性测试，总数达到454人。因此，美国国务院已经撤离了300名在钻石公主号上的美国公民及其家庭成员。有趣的是，从下船到到达机场之间，美国官员获悉，经过检测的约14名乘客的covid-19呈阳性，这是由病毒引起的疾病。这些人仍然被安置在飞机上，但是被安置在飞机的专门部分，并且在这里说是按照标准协议隔离的。这些人不会到达特拉维斯空军基地或德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥的联合基地。
There has also been a lot of talk about where did this coronavirus actually come from, and there is a preprint publication. That means that this has not been peer-reviewed, and this was made available by an international group of virologists. Some of them out of southern California at Scripps who looked at their analysis of the genome of this coronavirus, and they described as it says here: “it’s notable features and scenarios that likely led to its evolution.” They proposed two scenarios: natural selection in a host animal before the virus jumped to humans, or natural selection and humans fall in transmission from animals to people.
关于这种冠状病毒的真正来源也有很多讨论，并且有预印本。这意味着尚未经过同行评审，并且由国际病毒学家小组提供。他们中的一些人来自加利福尼亚南部的斯克里普斯（Scripps），他们对这种冠状病毒的基因组进行了分析，并在此进行了描述：“这是导致其进化的显着特征和场景。”他们提出了两种情况：在病毒跳到人类之前在宿主动物中进行自然选择，或者自然选择和人类从动物向人传播的过程中。
And if we look at this article, as you can see here, it comes out of Scripps Research in La Jolla California, and also the University of Edinburgh in the UK, as well as New York, Sydney, Australia, New Orleans and Germantown, Maryland.
如果我们看这篇文章，正如您在这里看到的那样，它来自加利福尼亚州拉霍亚的斯克里普斯研究公司，英国爱丁堡大学以及纽约，悉尼，澳大利亚，新奥尔良和日耳曼敦，马里兰州。
Talks about the different possible origins of this SARS-COVID-2, which is the name of the virus. In this, they talked about the binding sites of the SARS-COVID-2 genome, specifically to the human ACE-2 receptor, and in their discussion, you can see the breakdown of these sites where they analyze it and the mutations and contact residues of the SARS-COVID-2 spike protein. And the conclusion that they come to is interesting.
讨论此SARS-COVID-2的不同可能来源，这是病毒的名称。在此中，他们讨论了SARS-COVID-2基因组的结合位点，特别是与人ACE-2受体的结合位点，在讨论中，您可以看到这些位点的分解情况，在这里对其进行分析以及突变和接触残基SARS-COVID-2峰值蛋白的表达。他们得出的结论很有趣。
They say that it is improbable that the SARS-COVID-2 emerge through a laboratory manipulation of existing SARS-related coronavirus. They go on further to say that either this thing mutated before it went in humans or after went in humans. And they talked more about the adaptation to humans. Finally, in their conclusion, they say that it’s currently impossible to prove, or disprove, the other theories of its origin, and whether or not further data will help resolve this issue. And so we’ll put a link in here to this article as well.
他们说，SARS-COVID-2不可能通过实验室对现有SARS相关冠状病毒的处理而出现。他们进一步说，这件事在人类中发生之前或之后在人类中发生了变异。他们还谈到了对人类的适应。最后，他们在总结中说，目前尚无法证明或反驳其起源的其他理论，以及进一步的数据是否有助于解决这一问题。因此，我们也将在此处链接到本文。
Some of the things that we’ll be talking about in upcoming updates is exactly how does this virus infect cells, and how does it replicate and reproduce. We will get into a little bit of molecular biology. Thanks for joining us.
在即将到来的更新中，我们将要讨论的一些问题正是该病毒如何感染细胞以及如何复制和繁殖。我们将介绍一些分子生物学。感谢您加入我们。
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