浸入日常病例，新冠肺炎与流感的关系，加拿大传播 （新冠肺炎讲座13）

浸入日常病例，新冠肺炎与流感的关系，加拿大传播 （新冠肺炎讲座13

Dip in Daily Cases, nCoV vs Influenza, & Spread to Canada

Welcome to another MedCram coronavirus update! Number of deaths has gone from 565 up to 638. That’s an increase over day of 73, and that’s exactly what it was yesterday. So it looks as though we’ve got a linear increase here in the last couple of days.

欢迎来到另一个MedCram冠状病毒更新！死亡人数已从565人增加到638人。这比每天的73人增加了，而昨天的数字恰恰是这样。因此，在过去的几天里，我们似乎在这里线性增长。

I am very sad to say that one of those deaths was Dr. LWL, who was credited as one of the original doctors who recognized that there was an outbreak and then come to the very infection that he was warning about.

我很伤心地说，这些死亡的一个是LWL医生，谁相信了作为谁承认有爆发，然后来到非常感染，他警告有关原始医生之一。

For those of us that are in the health care industry, doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists, all sorts of people who everyday go to work to fight disease, a comrade of ours has fallen, and it gives us pause to remember that this is not a number’s game. They’re real people with families behind every one of these numbers.

对于我们这些从事医疗保健行业的人，医生，护士，呼吸治疗师，每天去上班与疾病作斗争的各种各样的人，我们的同志已经牺牲了，这让我们停下来要记住，这不是一个数字的游戏。他们是真实的人，每个数字背后都有家庭。

In terms of the infected, that’s what from 28,274 to 31, 440.  Interestingly, yesterday, that number represented an increase of 3,700; today, only an increase of 31, 066. Could this possibly be where things are starting to level out? I’m eternally optimistic, but I’m not sure.

从感染者的角度来看，从28,274人增加到31,440人。有趣的是，昨天，这个数字增加了3,700；如今，仅增加了31,066。这可能是事情开始趋于稳定的地方吗？我永远都很乐观，但是我不确定。

So interestingly, if you go to this website called worldometers.info/coronavirus/, you come to this dashboard that we referenced a couple of days ago, and shows you the number of coronavirus cases, of course, and the number of deaths, and the number that’s recovered. And what you’ll see here is the total cases, and if you notice very carefully, you’ll start to see that it looks as though it’s starting to layer off, but it may be difficult to actually assess that from the way this graph is laid out.

有趣的是，如果您访问这个名为worldometers.info/coronavirus/的网站，就会看到我们几天前引用的这个仪表板，它向您显示了冠状病毒病例数，死亡人数以及恢复的号码。您将在这里看到的是全部案例，如果您非常仔细地注意到，您会开始发现它似乎开始分层，但是从该图的方式实际评估可能很难布置。

So if you keep scrolling down, you’ll see this link here that says More Case Statistics.  If you click on that, you can see here the coronavirus cases, and there’s a little bit more detail. Here’s the part that’s interesting. If you look at Daily Cases Worldwide on the graph, here the bar graph, you’ll start to see here that February 6th, for the second day in a row, there seems to be somewhat of a decrease, at least there’s a decrease here on February 5th. It may be that the data hasn’t all come in yet for February 6th, it’s unclear. But that is certainly something that is noteworthy and something to watch.

因此，如果您继续向下滚动，则会在此处看到显示“更多案例统计信息”的链接。如果单击该按钮，则可以在此处看到冠状病毒的病例，还有更多详细信息。这是有趣的部分。如果您在图表上（柱状图）上查看“全球每日病例”，您将开始看到2月6日连续第二天有所减少，至少在这里有所减少2月5日。目前尚不清楚2月6日的数据还没有全部输入。但这当然是值得关注和注意的事情。

And then there’s the growth factor, which is basically taking the derivative, or the slope, of that increase, and that’s what we have here for the growth factor. You can see early on, there was quite variable, and then it’s been, generally speaking, just above one in terms of growth. And here again, for the second day in a row, it seems, if all the data is in and is correct, it would seem to suggest that the daily cases growth factor is finally for the first time going below 1 for 2 days in a row potentially. And hopefully, that’s going to lead us in the right direction.

然后是增长因子，它基本上是该增长的导数或斜率，这就是我们在这里得到的增长因子。您可以很早就看到变化很大，然后就增长而言，通常来说已经超过了一个。再一次，这似乎是连续第二天，如果所有数据都正确无误，这似乎表明每日病例增长因子终于连续2天首次低于1。潜在地排。希望这将引导我们朝正确的方向发展。

And then again here we have the total change in number. It seems as though we were in the 29%, mid-20s here in terms of change in total number. We’ve dipped below 20%, down to 15%, and now we’re down to 11%. We can only hope that that is true.

然后再一次，我们有了总的数量变化。就总数变化而言，我们似乎在20％的29％左右。我们已经降至20％以下，降至15％，而现在降至11％。我们只能希望那是真的。

We’re gonna have a better understanding of what’s going on here in the next couple of days over the weekend, which by the way, as we did last week, we will take a break, and we’ll start up at the beginning of next week.

我们将对周末接下来几天的活动有一个更好的了解，顺便说一下，就像我们上周所做的那样，我们将稍事休息，我们将在周末开始下周。

I want to put these numbers into perspective, however, right now in the United States, we have a flu epidemic. I’m sure that’s globally as well. About 19 million people have gotten the flu this year, 180,000 of them have been hospitalized here in the United States, and believe it or not. 10,000 of them have died this flu season; 68 of those 10,000 were children.

我想对这些数字进行分析，但是，现在在美国，我们有流感流行。我相信这也是全球性的。今年大约有1900万人得了流感，其中18万人已经在美国这里住院，并且信不信由你。在这个流感季节，有10,000人死亡；在这10,000个孩子中有68个是孩子。

In terms of those people that are recovering, I wanted to make a note of that. Yesterday, the total number of officially that recovered was 1,178. That’s gone up by about 369 to 1547. And we’re going to see this number increasing. A couple of weeks ago, we were in the few hundred, and now things have taken off to 30,000. So we’re gonna start to see definitive things here one way or the other.

关于那些正在恢复的人，我想记录一下。昨天，被追回的官方人员总数为1,178。大约增加了369至1547。我们将看到这个数字在增加。几周前，我们只有几百人了，现在已经发展到30,000个。因此，我们将开始以一种或另一种方式在这里看到确定的事物。

I will say though Dr. Li, kind of unusual course. If you look into his history, he was hospitalized on Jan 12, 2020. Of course, by that point, they had suspected along the way that he may have had this virus, and he was tested numerous times. It wasn’t positive until February 1st, 2020. He passed away on Feb 6, 2020. Or should I say he passed away and actually on Feb 7 because it was, I believe, Friday morning already in China at the time that he passed away.

我会说虽然李医生，这是不寻常的过程。如果您查看他的病史，他将在2020年1月12日住院。当然，到那时，他们一直怀疑他可能感染了这种病毒，并且对他进行了多次检查。直到2020年2月1日才取得积极进展。他于2020年2月6日去世。或者我应该说他去世了，实际上是在2月7日，因为我相信那是中国星期五早上他去世的。

So, why was it that he came down with symptoms and yet for a good week two weeks no positive coronavirus on testing. I don’t know if there was a quality issue, or whether or not he just didn’t have viremia, not exactly sure why this was the case.

。。。。。。

Want to talk about what’s going on in Canada because we’ve had a couple more cases in Vancouver. First case in Vancouver was related to a gentleman in his 40s who recently had traveled to the area in China Wuhan, and then there was a woman in her 50s in Vancouver. This is the second case in her 50s who became ill on February 1st, 2020 after husband and wife from Wuhan had visited her.

想谈谈加拿大的情况，因为我们在温哥华还有更多的案件。温哥华的第一起案件与40多岁的一位绅士有关，他最近去了中国武汉地区，然后在温哥华50多岁的时候有一位女士。这是她五十多岁的第二例，于2020年2月1日在武汉的丈夫和妻子探望之后病倒。

And so there was a female and a male in their 30s that were visiting, and they’re all staying in the same house. So when this lady became ill, and she was with someone that had come from Wuhan, they tested her, and she was positive for the coronavirus. It looks as though they have now tested these people as well after being in home isolation. And of course, they are both positive as well, which is not surprising given the fact that the woman in her 50s probably got it from those in their 30s.

因此，有30多岁的女性和男性来访，他们都住在同一所房子里。因此，当这位女士生病并与来自武汉的某人在一起时，他们对她进行了检测，她的冠状病毒呈阳性。看起来他们在隔离家庭之后，现在也已经在测试这些人。当然，他们俩也都是积极的，考虑到50多岁的女人可能是30多岁的女人得到的，这并不奇怪。

What’s interesting is that these people who are in their 30s, generally young speaking here, had very mild symptoms, maybe only a slight cold and then it went away. What’s significant about this case is this represents the first person-to-person transmission in Canada.

有趣的是，这些年龄在30岁左右的人（通常在这里说的很年轻）有非常轻微的症状，也许只是轻微的感冒然后就消失了。此案的重要意义在于，这是加拿大首次进行人对人传播。

So far, however, it appears as though everybody is doing well, at least the cases in North America. No one’s been hospitalized because they need to be more for quarantine and isolation. As it seems that young and healthy people are better apt to deal with this virus. Those of us who are a little rundown,  let’s take this opportunity to get extra sleep and to prepare ourselves in case there is an epidemic here of coronavirus, but more importantly because there already is a flu virus issue.

但是，到目前为止，似乎每个人都表现良好，至少在北美地区情况如此。没有人因为需要隔离和隔离而需要住院治疗。看起来年轻健康的人更容易应对这种病毒。我们当中有些人精疲力尽，让我们借此机会多睡一会并做好准备，以防万一冠状病毒在这里流行，但更重要的是因为已经存在流感病毒问题。

Thanks for joining us!

感谢您加入我们！