Dip in Daily Cases, nCoV vs Influenza, & Spread to Canada
Welcome to another MedCram coronavirus update! Number of deaths has gone from 565 up to 638. That’s an increase over day of 73, and that’s exactly what it was yesterday. So it looks as though we’ve got a linear increase here in the last couple of days.
I am very sad to say that one of those deaths was Dr. LWL, who was credited as one of the original doctors who recognized that there was an outbreak and then come to the very infection that he was warning about.
For those of us that are in the health care industry, doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists, all sorts of people who everyday go to work to fight disease, a comrade of ours has fallen, and it gives us pause to remember that this is not a number’s game. They’re real people with families behind every one of these numbers.
In terms of the infected, that’s what from 28,274 to 31, 440. Interestingly, yesterday, that number represented an increase of 3,700; today, only an increase of 31, 066. Could this possibly be where things are starting to level out? I’m eternally optimistic, but I’m not sure.
So interestingly, if you go to this website called worldometers.info/coronavirus/, you come to this dashboard that we referenced a couple of days ago, and shows you the number of coronavirus cases, of course, and the number of deaths, and the number that’s recovered. And what you’ll see here is the total cases, and if you notice very carefully, you’ll start to see that it looks as though it’s starting to layer off, but it may be difficult to actually assess that from the way this graph is laid out.
So if you keep scrolling down, you’ll see this link here that says More Case Statistics. If you click on that, you can see here the coronavirus cases, and there’s a little bit more detail. Here’s the part that’s interesting. If you look at Daily Cases Worldwide on the graph, here the bar graph, you’ll start to see here that February 6th, for the second day in a row, there seems to be somewhat of a decrease, at least there’s a decrease here on February 5th. It may be that the data hasn’t all come in yet for February 6th, it’s unclear. But that is certainly something that is noteworthy and something to watch.
And then there’s the growth factor, which is basically taking the derivative, or the slope, of that increase, and that’s what we have here for the growth factor. You can see early on, there was quite variable, and then it’s been, generally speaking, just above one in terms of growth. And here again, for the second day in a row, it seems, if all the data is in and is correct, it would seem to suggest that the daily cases growth factor is finally for the first time going below 1 for 2 days in a row potentially. And hopefully, that’s going to lead us in the right direction.
And then again here we have the total change in number. It seems as though we were in the 29%, mid-20s here in terms of change in total number. We’ve dipped below 20%, down to 15%, and now we’re down to 11%. We can only hope that that is true.
We’re gonna have a better understanding of what’s going on here in the next couple of days over the weekend, which by the way, as we did last week, we will take a break, and we’ll start up at the beginning of next week.
I want to put these numbers into perspective, however, right now in the United States, we have a flu epidemic. I’m sure that’s globally as well. About 19 million people have gotten the flu this year, 180,000 of them have been hospitalized here in the United States, and believe it or not. 10,000 of them have died this flu season; 68 of those 10,000 were children.
In terms of those people that are recovering, I wanted to make a note of that. Yesterday, the total number of officially that recovered was 1,178. That’s gone up by about 369 to 1547. And we’re going to see this number increasing. A couple of weeks ago, we were in the few hundred, and now things have taken off to 30,000. So we’re gonna start to see definitive things here one way or the other.
I will say though Dr. Li, kind of unusual course. If you look into his history, he was hospitalized on Jan 12, 2020. Of course, by that point, they had suspected along the way that he may have had this virus, and he was tested numerous times. It wasn’t positive until February 1st, 2020. He passed away on Feb 6, 2020. Or should I say he passed away and actually on Feb 7 because it was, I believe, Friday morning already in China at the time that he passed away.
So, why was it that he came down with symptoms and yet for a good week two weeks no positive coronavirus on testing. I don’t know if there was a quality issue, or whether or not he just didn’t have viremia, not exactly sure why this was the case.
Want to talk about what’s going on in Canada because we’ve had a couple more cases in Vancouver. First case in Vancouver was related to a gentleman in his 40s who recently had traveled to the area in China Wuhan, and then there was a woman in her 50s in Vancouver. This is the second case in her 50s who became ill on February 1st, 2020 after husband and wife from Wuhan had visited her.
And so there was a female and a male in their 30s that were visiting, and they’re all staying in the same house. So when this lady became ill, and she was with someone that had come from Wuhan, they tested her, and she was positive for the coronavirus. It looks as though they have now tested these people as well after being in home isolation. And of course, they are both positive as well, which is not surprising given the fact that the woman in her 50s probably got it from those in their 30s.
What’s interesting is that these people who are in their 30s, generally young speaking here, had very mild symptoms, maybe only a slight cold and then it went away. What’s significant about this case is this represents the first person-to-person transmission in Canada.
So far, however, it appears as though everybody is doing well, at least the cases in North America. No one’s been hospitalized because they need to be more for quarantine and isolation. As it seems that young and healthy people are better apt to deal with this virus. Those of us who are a little rundown, let’s take this opportunity to get extra sleep and to prepare ourselves in case there is an epidemic here of coronavirus, but more importantly because there already is a flu virus issue.
Thanks for joining us!