新冠肺炎无症状传播和潜伏期
Asymptomatic Transmission & Incubation Period (Coronavirus Lecture 6)
Welcome to another Medcram update. So where are we currently? Well as it stands, the number of deaths is up from 132 to currently 170, and the number infected globally to a current 7,783. Now, these numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt.
欢迎参加Medcram的新讲座！那么我们目前在哪里？从目前的情况来看，死亡人数从132人增加到目前的170人，全球感染者的人数已增加到目前的7,783人。现在，我们不是很确定这些数字是否真实准确。
First of all, I’m going to give you a link where you can get an update at any time of day on the number of cases, and it’s updated by Johns Hopkins University, and the link to that is in the description below.
首先，我将为您提供一个链接，您可以在该链接上随时获取案件数量的最新信息，该信息由约翰·霍普金斯大学（Johns Hopkins University）更新，其链接在下面的描述中。
The other thing though is that there is a real shortage of the tests. So that’s going to affect both the numerator here in terms of deaths and also the denominator. Obviously, when someone is very sick, they’re going to be wanting to make sure that they know whether or not this is the novel coronavirus.
不过，另一件事是测试确实很短缺。因此，这将影响死亡分子和分母。显然，当某人病重时，他们将要确保他们知道这是否是新型冠状病毒。
As it stands right now, good news is a lot of these countries outside of China have really been static in terms of the number of cases. USA is still at five; Canada is still at three.
就目前情况而言，好消息是，在中国以外的国家中，有许多在病例数量方面确实是静止的。美国仍然是五个。加拿大仍然是三个。
One thing that shows the concern here in terms of spreading the disease is the case of the 10-year old that was essentially asymptomatic. Let’s talk about that. So apparently this 10-year-old child with his parents, also grandparents, flew from Shenzhen all the way up to Wuhan, and this was around the end of December, and they were there of course for the New Year. And after about three to four days, they came down with symptoms. At that time, there was a little bit of interest in about, you know, 20 to 30 cases of pneumonia that have been undiagnosed in the hospital, but it wasn’t certainly the international level of news as it is today.
在疾病传播方面引起关注的一件事是10岁的儿童，基本上没有症状。让我们来谈谈。因此，很显然，这个10岁的孩子与父母以及祖父母一起从深圳一直飞到武汉，大约是12月底，他们当然也要过新年。大约三到四天后，他们出现了症状。当时，人们对大约20到30例尚未在医院被诊断出的肺炎感兴趣，但关注程度远不如现在的国际关注。
Both the parents and the grandparents became ill, and in further review of this, it seems as though the family went to actually go visit some loved ones that were in the hospital the time. So the parents and the grandparents became ill, and they were tested, and by about this point, of course, if you add 3 to 4 days to December 29, they knew that they were dealing with a viral outbreak, and of course, they tested positive for the novel coronavirus, and the grandparents were tested, and of course they turned out to be positive for the novel coronavirus.
父母和祖父母都病了，在对此进行进一步的审查时，似乎一家人实际上去看望了当时在医院的一些亲人。因此父母和祖父母生病了，他们接受了检查，当然，到现在为止，如果您在12月29日之前再增加3-4天，他们就会知道自己正在应对病毒爆发，当然，新型冠状病毒检测结果为阳性，而祖父母也经过检测，当然他们对新型冠状病毒检测结果为阳性。
While the parents insisted that their 10-year-old boy be tested even though he was asymptomatic, and they didn’t want to test the boy because he wasn’t showing any signs of illness, but they went ahead and tested him anyway, and the 10-year-old child tested. Guess what? Positive for the novel coronavirus even though he was completely asymptomatic, didn’t have fever, cough, shortness of breath.
尽管父母们坚持要对10岁的男孩进行检查，即使他没有症状，他们也不想对男孩进行检查，因为他没有任何疾病迹象，但他们还是继续对他进行了检查，和一个10岁的孩子进行了测试。你猜怎么了？即使他完全无症状，也没有发烧，咳嗽，呼吸急促，但对新型冠状病毒仍呈阳性。
When they did a CAT scan though, they looked, they found that he actually had signs of pneumonia. So here’s this thing where people can be asymptomatic, have very mild disease, but be shedding the virus.
不过，当他们进行CAT扫描时，他们发现，他实际上有肺炎的迹象。因此，这是人们可以无症状，患有非常轻度的疾病，但会传播病毒。
And of course, this is concerning with the recent news of this plane taking our diplomats from China back and landing at the March Air Force Reserve Base, and it is there that they are all under voluntary quarantine for at least three days where they’re being checked out and actually having nasal swabs and things of that nature, but the question really comes down to is how good of a quarantine can we do? And how good of a blockade or lockdown can we do? How well can we screen people coming in through the airports if people may not have fevers, may not have these sorts of symptoms, and they’re coming in with the virus, and they’re shedding it and it’s spreading.
当然，这与这架飞机将我们的外交官从中国带回并降落在‘三月空军后备基地’的最新消息有关，在那里他们全都被自愿隔离了至少三天，用鼻拭子和类似性质的东西检查，但真正的问题归结为我们能做多好的检疫？我们能做多好的隔离或封锁？如果人们可能没有发烧，可能没有这些症状，他们正在感染病毒，正在传染并且病毒正在传播，那么我们如何筛选通过机场进入的人员？
Interestingly, a couple of points that I want to show is it only took about three to four days to show symptoms in the parents and the grandparents. That’s a pretty short incubation period, so this 10-year-old shows that it’s possible, and I think this is the basis for the health minister in China saying that there may be some cases where this can spread even though people may be asymptomatic.
有趣的是，我想表明的几点是，只需要三到四天就可以在父母和祖父母中表现出症状。那是一个很短的潜伏期，所以这个十岁的孩子表明这是可能的，而且我认为这是中国卫生部长所说的基础，尽管有些人可能是无症状的，但在某些情况下这种病仍可能传播。
It also highlights something else as well. What they’re noticing is that the young may have a milder course, whereas the elderly have a more severe course. It’s kind of a dichotomy. I saw one article that brought this up, and you’ve got this continuum, whereas on one side you have SARS, which actually was a coronavirus, and the other side you have flu, and what is the continuum here? Well with SARS, this was a very severe disease, but you couldn’t really spread it unless you were symptomatic. So SARS basically allowed authorities to isolate it and to prevent its spread, so severe, however, not going to spread in an asymptomatic patient.
它还突出了其他内容。他们注意到的是，年轻人病症较，而老年人较重。这是一种二分法。我看到一篇文章提出了这个问题，并且您已经有了这个连续体，而一方面您患有SARS（实际上是一种冠状病毒），另一方面您患有流感，这里的连续体是什么？患有SARS，这是一种非常严重的疾病，但是除非有症状，否则您无法真正传播它。因此，SARS基本上允许当局隔离它并防止其扩散，如此严重，但是不会在无症状患者中扩散。
Take the ether extreme here, which is the flu, where generally speaking you get the flu, you take some over-the-counter medication; not a big deal, but you can spread the flu when you’re asymptomatic. It has more of a shedding. And so the question is where exactly in this continuum is this new coronavirus going to be? Certainly, it has some of the components on this end, which is where you can have it be asymptomatic, but you can shed it, whereas we can see very clearly that this thing does have a mortality rate, especially in the old. So I think time is going to tell on which side this coronavirus is going to come down on. Again, go to the Johns Hopkins website, and you can get immediate updates, and it will map out, and we’ll show you where things are spreading. Well, this is the update. Thanks for joining us!
在这里以太极端，即流感，一般来说，您得了流感后，需要服用一些非处方药。没什么大不了的，但是您可以在没有症状的情况下传播流感。它有更多的脱落。因此，问题在于，这种新的冠状病毒到底在该连续体中的什么位置？当然，它具有这一方面的某些组成部分，在这里您可以使它无症状，但您可以传播它，而我们可以很清楚地看到，这件事确实有死亡率，尤其是在老人中。因此，我认为时间会告诉我们这种冠状病毒将在哪方面发生。同样，请访问Johns Hopkins网站，您可以立即获取更新，并且它将进行映射，并且我们将向您显示情况正在蔓延。好，这是更新。感谢您加入我们！
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